>>392234Hello, anon, I glad to see you here. I didn't have the opportunity to speak with Iranians before, especially about Iran vs Israel war from strategical perspective.
>Unlike Israel, which has the US as its attack dog (and emotional support animal), Iran's only "partners" are Russia and China, both cold, opportunistic players. It's not friendship. It's "enemy-of-my-enemy" pragmatism at best.As Russian military, I can confirm. We are opportunists in this global war. We clearly don't want China to win, because in this situation we are totally fucked. Russia-Iran-China triangle looks harmonious from resource perspective, but it is destructive to our industry. Land empire with lengthy railroads can't compete with ×10 times bigger country with best harbors and perfect river systems. Our strategical goal is to shape EU to more independent state, make beneficial agreement with them and then focus on development of Eastern Siberia and Northern sea route.
I know about two diplomatic projects with Iran. First one is North-South route through Caspian sea, as reserve route, if Black Sea was totally blocked. Second project is triple treaty between Russia, Iran and Israel to stabilize region, when USA clearly wants to burn China's oil supplies. I think our leader doesn't want to see Israel collapse, because Israel itself draw resources from much stronger Jewish bankers and harm their international image. So, I think, Russia will aim diplomatic efforts to peacekeeping.
I have three questions.
Question №1:
Iran vs Israel war is beneficial for Iran? From our perspective not for both sides. Shia Islam is 10% of Mohammedan world, but Sunni Islam is 87% of population. Nowadays Israeli is enemy for both, but without Israel Sunni countries can join efforts against Iran. Rockets barrages and attacks from Hezbollah and Houthis looks as some kind of show for Mohammedan world. Threats, but without coordination and serious damage. I perfectly know, how vulnerable Israel from Lebanon. Their gas platforms, their water desalination stations, their power plants. This looks like strategical game: Iran used Israel like scarecrow and gather more influence, but doesn't want real war. However this situation may get out of control, just like our 'rapid' campaign in Ukraine.
Question №2:
What do you know about sea blockade of Syria? Maybe some Iranian news? This situation completely avoided by our public sources, but I found this data about oil export:
- Iranian oil production 2023 -- 174M ton/year (86 GJ per capita)
- Iranian oil export 2023 -- 75M ton/year (37 GJ per capita)
- 2022: Iran --> Syria 7.3M ton/year, 11% export (13.8 GJ per capita)
- 2024: Iran --> Syria 2.85M ton/year, 4% export (5.4 GJ per capita)
- Syrian oil production (1996, 15M population) -- 25.9M ton/year (76 GJ per capita)
- Syrian oil production (2009, 18M population) -- 20.0M ton/year (48.9 GJ per capita)
- Syrian oil production (2016, 18M population) -- 2.5-4.5 ton/year (6.1-11 GJ per capita)
- Syrian oil production (2023, 23.3M population) -- 1.2 ton/year (2.3 GJ per capita)
Looks like before 2023 Iran supply Assad government almost fully. <10GJ per capita is not enough even for agriculture. 20GJ per capita is borderline level for organized government and army activities. But Iran decreased supplies 2.5 times and Russia don't send tankers too, although it would be just 3% of our oil export. I don't understand this situation. I haven't seen news about sea blockade, but it looks just like it.
Question №3:
What do you think about Iranian diplomatic contacts with Saudi Arabia? Defensive cooperation is possible? Can general population agree with this? From our perspective USA can block China's sea tanker routes in Malacca by AUKUS, or just burn Persian Gulf.
>And yeah, if push comes to shove and war erupts, I'm not gonna sit this one out. I'm ready to stand up, not for a regime, but for something bigger.>Not because I love mullahs, but because I love my country and I love to finally get revenge on those faggots, who have fucked a lot of civilizations in history. I’d love to finally put a bullet in one of their heads.They are my enemies too. This is personal with my family and jews from Revolution times. Personally, I'm like Iran as last successor of ancient Persia. I noticed your industry, roads, steel production, modern and effective military. My friends fought alongside Iranian forces in Syria. I grateful for shaheeds and shells. I am preparing to next possible war in the Central Asia (Kazakhstan and Ferghana region), but I will fight against Iran only if Russia need this war for survival and our future. Empires don't have constant allies, but I wish your country to be strong through this dark times. I wish you good luck.