/mlpol/ - My Little Politics


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Spoilered
Syria General - /sg/ Road Trip To Damascus Edition
Anonymous
a158c92
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No.307390
307391 307393 307398 307417 307501
Archive/Study/Research/Library
>syriagenerals.wordpress.com

>Interviews with Assad
[YouTube] حوار مع قناة روسيا 24 و وكالة روسيا سيفودنيا
[YouTube] ASSAD EXCLUSIVE: US will attack foes & friends to protect its hegemony, Syria just a latest victim
[YouTube] حوار الرئيس الأسد مع السورية و الإخبارية (مترجم)

>Live MAPS
https://globaleventmap.org
http://syria.liveuamap.com

>Fan maps
https://twitter.com/PetoLucem
https://twitter.com/miladvisor
https://twitter.com/a7_mirza
https://twitter.com/hamza_780

Shit that happened in roughly the last month
>Taliban seize two towns near Shajoy in NE Zabul, take Arzu and another hamlet south of Ghazni, close on Gardez and took over FOB Zurmate in Paktia, and are approaching Puli Khumri from the north in Baghlan
>Taliban besiege Sozma Qala DHQ in Sar-e Pol, Qarabagh DHQ in Ghazni, and Islam Qala in Herat after capturing Ghoriyan & Kohsan Districts in Herat
>Clashes between ANA and Taliban reported on Day Mirdad-Bihsud border in Wardak
>ANA pushes Taliban away from the western Arghandab bank to the immediate NW of Kandahar City
>Houthi forces are pushing reinforcements from the Nati & Al-Bayda fronts and the southern Marib axis (Jabal Murad front)
>Hadi's forces in the Murad axis have sent reinforcements to the fighting axes west of the city of Marib
>Leaders from the Third Brigade Asifah went to Sana'a, announcing their defection from the National Army
>Per the Coalition Operations Room in Riyadh, Oshkosh armored vehicles will be withdrawn from the fronts and Hadi forces camps in Marib
>NDF in Qamishli assassinate pro-SDF arab sheikh after he attended tribal meeting trying to reach ceasefire in Qamishli city, no SAA involved
>Russia brokers a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia with Karabakh ceding almost half its land to Azerbaijan but keeping Lachin corridor.
>Taliban escalates attacks on Afghan gov't positions in several provinces, fires rockets at a joint ANDSF-USA base in Khost
>Myanmar: Military junta takes control, sparking massive protests across the country that are met with lethal force in a rapidly escalating situation
>Mozambique: ISIS takes over Palma in Cabo Delgado province, sparking a gov't counteroffensive that succeeds in retaking the city with foreign assistance
>Ukraine withdraws from Minsk peace talks following a new round of escalation between Ukraine & Russia

>THREAD THEME...

https://youtu.be/KO4SxAzRqEo

Previous >>286157 →
64 replies and 41 files omitted.
Ebin
64df134
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No.309932
Afghan_Shitmap.png
Afghan_Districtmap.png
Afghan Shitmupdate & Districtmupdate
Taliban take over several districts/DHQs across Afghanistan in 24 hours.
Washir in Helmand, Farsi in Herat, Gizab in Daykundi, Shinkay in Zabul (with Shahjoy contested AND under siege), Dih Yak in Ghazni, Mandol (not shown) and Du Ab in Nuristan.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.309951
>>309915
>actual air cover
The houthis' earlier advances on the Marib fronts proves it is possible without it, it's "just" a matter of suppressing enemy firing positions with artillery/ATGM/HMGs and storming with overwhelming manpower. I still believe the setbacks on the Kasara/Dushsh front was a tactical retreat and not a capitulation.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310112
310116 310187
>>309903
Krasnopol (laser guided artillery) and Uragan/Smerch being used, pretty serious hardware for routine bombardment...
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1401908664923983875
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1401818142796664836
Still no airstrikes though.
Anonymous
fe525c3
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No.310116
310238
E3RCK13WEAAEja5.jpeg
>>310112
>(laser guided artillery)
It might be, looking at the pictures found one which looks like the servo-mechanism for terminal guidance.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310187
310237
E3ZXDdFWQAEz6gl.jpg
kawkabah.jpg
E3ZW4LCXwAIBNch.jpg
>>310112
Rebels shelled Kawkabah and Hazarrin.
Neat drone shots showing Kawkabah with al-Ghab plain and the Nusayriyah Mountain range in the background.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.568347&lon=36.443442&z=16&m=w
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310237
E3bIMNeXEAIOlUz.jpg
>>310187
Krasnopol vs innocent tent *wink wink* in IDP camp near Taum
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1402528464826253316
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.991471&lon=36.746966&z=18&m=bs
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310238
>>310116
It has been used in Syria for years now, dope system.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_pEgfOu6JU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gF6tPflj63Q
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310243
310244 310295 310296
Idlib.png
In light of recent uptick of violence, absence of Ru-Tr patrols on the M4, jihadi attacks on t*rks and weird t*rk base shuffling activities, i'd say the probability of the Idlib offensive resuming has increased drastically.
If anything happens, the first goal will be to reach Ariha from the south and east precisely how it was planned to be done before the t*rks intervened last year.
Advancing into Idlib city and far north of the M4 in general is still highly unlikely to happen due to T*rkish interest, but i predict that any roach nest south of/in the immediate vicinity of the M4 will be evacuated or meet the same fate as the observation bases of yore if an offensive does happen.
Jabal Zawiya -> Ariha -> al-Ghab -> Southern part of al-Wastani mountain -> Kabani (K*rds mountain, Latakia) -> Jisr al-Shughur.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310244
310256
1561362765130.jpg
>>310243
Forgot to mention map is pre-Idlib offensive 2015 with current frontline (red line) drawn on it to show how different the modus operandi of SAA is today and how wide of a buffer zone is needed to control the M-4 between Ariha and Jisr al-Shughur.

Tell me if you want an autistic snusmap detailing my prediction.
Anonymous
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No.310254
310299
E3dwpXSWQAMTAzP.jpg
E3dwptEXMAMqCnJ.jpg
>>309650
Finito
Anonymous
13b96a5
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No.310256
310296
>>310244
>autistic snusmap
The more autism the better.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310295
310300 310306
E3f6PYbWEAMI_sE.jpg
E3gU1zVXEAIMIh8.png
E3gixZOXEAAqbBe.jpg
E3guq8kXMAEAqTp.png
>>310243
Heavy artllery shelling on Jabal Zawiya continues and now RuAF are bombing, videos & images:
https://twitter.com/N0tWoofers/status/1402867937304776709
https://twitter.com/N0tWoofers/status/1402874353751146499
>Southern Idleb sector hit hard by Syrian army shelling. For the first time in a while, 25th Division/Tigers artillery play a big part in the shelling
https://twitter.com/ProNDF/status/1402890044604661760
>HTS spokesman Abu Khalid al-Shami was not the only target of Russian strikes on Idlib this morning. Abu Musab al-Homis, the group's main media coordinator, was also killed in the strikes. Both men worked closely with Western journalists who visit Idlib.
>The head of HTS' Security Force, Mu'ataz al-Nasir was also killed in Russian strikes which targeted Idlib in the morning.
https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/1402894576118112262
>Raef talks about a possible military operation and says that the liberation of the city of Idlib is difficult but not impossible and that if ordered, the Bab al-Hawa border crossing will be reached in 10 days.
https://twitter.com/Bosni_94/status/1402951145400713219
Iirc Raef is the TF field reporter.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310296
310297 310355
2.png
4.png
6.png
>>310256
Eh, it's very disjointed but here's my very strategic analISIS of what was supposed to happen and probably will happen on Jabal Zawiya if an offensive happens.
>Pt.1 Jabal Zawiya
First off, let's revisit what was happening before the roaches got tired of playing chicken with SAA:
SAA was strolling through Jabal Zawiya, doing the typical kotel tactics with what seemed like zero resistance. When they were in the process of entering Kansafra though, the roaches started bombing with drones and artillery whilst their proxy jihadists started their counter-offensive.
SAA, being completely unprepared to fight jihadis with air cover quickly retreated to the current frontline and the rest is history.
>Pt.2 Jabal Arbeen
What was supposed to happen on Jabal Zawiya is fairly obvious, SAA would capture the mountain and the jihadis would subsequently retreat from the part of the Ghab plain which would now be under fire control (just like they did when SAA captured Jabal Shashbo), probably only remaining in the villages around the M-4 highway.
For now, SAA would not advance in the Ghab plain further than the villages in the immediate vicinity of Jabal Zawiya.
The advance would continue toward al-Bara, which has been kotel'd by now. Once al-Bara was seized, the advance would continue up the Arbeen mountain, step by step squeezing the jihadists out of the villages east of it and reaching the M-4 highway southwest of Ariha.
>Pt.3 Ariha.
Arbeen mountain and Ariha would be tricky, and the jihadi counteroffensive on Nayrab and Saraqib supported by the roaches made the whole thing basically impossible to execute. The plan was to surround Ariha from west, east and south.
It's hard to say what will happen on the Saraqib axis if the offensive does happen, SAA has to hold Nayrab and possibly even Mastoumah in order to secure the M-4 to Ariha.
The roaches obviously didn't and still doesn't want SAA getting so close to Idlib city, so SAA might have to compromise and stay south of the M-4 between Saraqib and Ariha.

Hard to say what will happen really, if Russia has coordinated with the roaches to surrender the M-4 in return for sparing Idlib city then SAA will capture Ariha and secure a buffer zone similar to the 2015 buffer zone ( >>310243 ) before descending Jabal Zawiya to the west with Jisr al-Shughur in their crosshairs. I'll make some more spergshit like this detailing Jisr al-Shughur and the Latakia/Kabani hellzone when i feel like it or the offensive kicks off for real (SAA has never had real control of the mountainous area directly west of Jisr al-Shughur, making it hard to predict).
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310297
8.png
>>310296
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310298
E3iJWF6XMAE0806.jpg
E3iJXGEWUAcNR6R.png
Oleg of ANNA News having a good time in the Syrian desert.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310299
310356
1503976814797.gif
>>310254
>Ansarallah has reached a deal with the Saudi coalition. Ansarallah will stop launching raids and missile/drone attacks on Saudi territory. In turn Sanaa international airport and Hodeidah sea port will both be opened. The deal will not affect clashes in areas like Marib.
https://twitter.com/Zaid83910006/status/1403013527963582471
https://twitter.com/kal_alomari/status/1402301455210586118
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310300
>>310295
Potato drone filming/directing the strike that killed the HTS dudes today:
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1403044240985313283
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310302
310367
1498818939733.jpg
>Reports of a number of ATGM and artillery strikes by the SAA on Turkish troops, vehicles in al-Qarqur in northwestern Hama.
>SAA also shelled the vicinity of a Turkish post in the town of al-Bara in southern Idlib.
https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/1403081341600677891
>Pro-rebel sources stating that the SAA has blown up a piece of Turkish engineering equipment at Al Qarqur village with an ATGM
https://twitter.com/N0tWoofers/status/1403082906562609158
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.743273&lon=36.326251&z=15&show=/24269869/Qarqur
Well then, i assume SAA are confident that their AA systems will work this time around?
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310306
310435
>>310295
>5th Corps stationed in Lattakia also shelled Kabanah front today
https://twitter.com/thesyrianlions/status/1403096452252028931
Anonymous
13b96a5
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No.310355
>>310296
Noice spergmap
> Jisr al-Shughur and the Latakia/Kabani hellzone
Its really hard to see how they will do it while splitting their focus with other areas as they did in the last 10 attempts, on the other hand I don't think they will want to split an offensive into the M4 to two parts especially considering the inclinations of the Turks to sperg out.
Anonymous
13b96a5
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No.310356
>>310299
I was waiting for this concession for so long that I started to believe it would never happen.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310366
2015_Latakia_Frontlines.svg.png
10.png
>>>310355
>Its really hard to see how they will do it while splitting their focus with other areas as they did in the last 10 attempts
To be fair, they made huge gains in the late 2015 to early 2016 offensive (pic related) whilst launching several succesful offensives on other fronts.
I can see only two ways to tackle this front, either they man the fuck up and brute force storm it, or (most likely) capture Jisr al-Shughur from the south/east and make their way up the mountain along the M-4 forcing the jihadis to retreat or get encircled.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310367
310368
E3lwXc7WQAUVUmd.jpg
>>310302
>Ansar al-Tawhid responded by firing a new "earthquake rocket" (pic) and other rockets at Hazarin and Milajah
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.606789&lon=36.501732&z=14&gz=0;364961099;355931803;0;1395;283241;103987;283241;103987
>HTS announced that its artillery shelled Syrian Army positions in Basqala and Maarat Hurmah this morning and that it had allegedly fired more than 110 missiles in the past 24 hours.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.583618&lon=36.537094&z=12&gz=0;365424156;355453565;363922;564081;0;0
https://twitter.com/syria_map/status/1403269969694109696
>Outgoing rocket fire filmed from opposition held areas in southern Idlib, Syria earlier today
https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1403311802579042308
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310368
E3mYnezWUAMufpy.jpg
>>310367
Earthquake rocket hitting Hazarin smack dab in the middle of town.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310370
Civilians are leaving Jabal Zawiya
https://twitter.com/abohanen671/status/1402950628121485320
Anonymous
fe525c3
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No.310391
310393
IcahbPmVOY2S_640x360.jpg
>A Day Of Reckoning In Syria’s Idlib
>It has been a long time coming, and it seems that an escalation in Greater Idlib might be on the way.
>After frequent ceasefire violations by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other terrorist groups of the so-called “moderate opposition”, the cup seems to be spilling over.
>On June 10th, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian support began a heavy shelling operation on various HTS positions throughout Greater Idlib.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/IcahbPmVOY2S/
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310393
1532878177027.png
>>310391
I refuse to believe that the recent RuAF strikes in Idlib is a mere one-off retaliation for the killed Russian in Hasaka. They've allowed and guided the usage of krasnopol in Idlib days ahead of that incident.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310395
1537216836668.png
>Militants claim (they've repelled an) SAA infiltration in Harsh Benin
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1403484936083054594
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.708817&lon=36.655712&z=14&show=/38141807/Harsh-Binine
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310419
310423
E3qUDXrWEAQ5ujr.jpg
SAA are still shelling Jabal Zawiya and Jabal Arbaeen
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310423
E3sMBTJXMAQLwH8.jpg
>>310419
RuAF joining in again.
https://twitter.com/Unknownobserve4/status/1403727827074261002
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310425
E3sUrU5WEAMUDPd.jpg

Anonymous
c695533
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No.310426
image_2021-06-12_183751.png
>locations targeted last 48 hours in Idlib
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1403752973436604419
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310435
310491
>>310306
>Lattakia front heating up a degree or two. Mutual shelling tonight
https://twitter.com/ProNDF/status/1403823140472602630
>Russians/SRG/5th Corps stationed in Jurin Camp, Hama shell multiple rebel positions tonight. The camp is an old 4th Division headquarters, now occupied mostly by 5th Corps and Russians
https://twitter.com/ProNDF/status/1403824382976352258
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.607077&lon=36.265258&z=18&show=/39235787/Syrian-pro-government-military-site
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310491
>>310435
>Shelling on Ruweiha, Binin, Kafrsafra, Banin, Tal Wasit, Anakawi and Ziyarah
https://twitter.com/SyriaWar2/status/1404166509132460034
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310662
310676 310695
1504990550211.png
>Afghanistan
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310668
image_2021-06-17_162215.png
image_2021-06-17_162227.png
Two moderates in a hyundai santa fe (lel) nailed with ATGM on the road between Ziyadiyah and al-Masheek in al-Ghab plain
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.717389&lon=36.334190&z=14&gz=0;363347482;357135557;0;0;195693;22300
Kornet strikes again
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310669
The shelling on jabal zawiya hasn't stopped.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310676
E4Gt-RwXoAE6d1B.jpg
>>310662
Ebin
64df134
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No.310695
310705 310763
Afghan_Shitmap.png
Afghan_Districtmap.png
>>310662
Fuck, I dropped the ball with the updates. Won't do that anymore.
But basically the Taliban have captured literal dozens of districts within a month.
Look at this shit, the gov't presence in Uruzgan has been reduced to literally just Tarinkot.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310704
E4JP2EmVgAAXciR.png
Ariha received a morning salute
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310705
310763 310783
Eys4AnTWUAQITLC.jfif
>>310695
How strict are the sieges on the cities, i assume civilian traffic and non-military goods are allowed?
A political solution must be around the corner, can't wait to see media ramp up their tear-machines about liberal arts and anal sex being shut down.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310712
1561411062557.png
>Around ~70 Afghan troops surrender in one video
https://twitter.com/Zabehulah_M33/status/1405844482113867777
Anonymous
b0d8375
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No.310763
310783
>>310695
It's going faster than I though it would, banking of Faryab being first to fall.

>>310705
I briefly spoke to someone from the region a while ago and it sounded very loose to civilians sans toll payments.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310764
1553236350342.jpg
>Marib: The army and the people's committees launch a large-scale attack from the sides of the dam, Talat al-Hamra front and Raghwan and progress is continuous
https://twitter.com/fHvVtKCHsq7JrpK/status/1406292881388748803
Ebin
64df134
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No.310783
310787
>>310705
>How strict are the sieges on the cities, i assume civilian traffic and non-military goods are allowed?
Correct, for the most part.
>Political solution
Military solution is more like it, there are mass surrenders across the entirety of Afghanistan, Taliban are entering DHQs without much fight at all, and in Baghlan city, a somewhat alright equipped ANA force handed over all their weapons and equipment including quite a few humvees to the Taliban. It seems Baghlan city fell without a fight, but I haven't confirmed that yet.
>>310763
Bank on Tarinkot/Uruzgan to fall first.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310784
E4Rq63bWUAAgI3o.jpg
>Monsieur Suheil in the desert overlooking anti-ISIS operations.
The new SAA tactic seems to be bearing fruit, but i doubt it will do much in the long run.
Anonymous
c695533
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No.310787
310799
1549104202004.png
>>310783
Eh, maybe it's dumb to think the Taliban would allow any regime loyalists to retain any power... i guess i forgot the Taliban aren't interested in the whole democracy shebang.
In fact, i'm dumbfounded trying to figure what is really going to happen, '96-´01 redux but with no superpower spoiling the fun and less cuddling with internationalist terror movements?
Ebin
64df134
?
No.310797
Afghan_Shitmap.png
Afghan_Districtmap.png
Afghan Shitmupdate & Districtmupdate
Corrections: Corrected Barfak in Baghlan, Khwaja Ghar in Takhar, Khost Wa Fereng in Baghlan.
Gains: Taliban take over Bangi, Baharak, Chal, Namak Ab, and Hazar Sumuch in Takhar; Dushi DHQ and Baghlan City, and cut the Kabul-Puli Khumri road in Baghlan; Mardyan in Jowzjan; a base to the south of Mughul to the east of Saripul and cut the road between Saripul and Sheberghan; Establish firm control between Pashtun Zarghun and Chisthi Sharif in eastern Herat, and likewise between Islam Qala and Zindajan to the west, minus the DHQs, and also take over Gulran to the NW; In Farah, they took over Qala i Kah (Pusht Koh) District; Grishk District in Helmand; Laja Mangal and Mirzaka DHQs in Paktia; Besiege Badpash in Laghman; Shirin Tagab and Khwaja Sabz Posh (Juma Bazaar) Districts in Faryab, and establish a strong presence to the immediate northeast of Maymana; Dara-i Suf in Samangan.
ANA did a little counterattack to retake Pato DHQ in Daykundi, and retook Khan Abad in Kunduz.
Ebin
64df134
?
No.310799
>>310787
Pretty much. Though after they retake power and exert control over ALL of Afghanistan (first time any faction ruled 100% of Afghanistan since 1979), expect them to get assistance from neighboring countries at some point in the future, especially for rebuilding. International trade will become very interested in making Afghanistan a trade crossroads, especially since Afghanistan has 7 trillion dollars' worth of mineral resources in the northeast, that has been largely untapped. Too lucrative to pass up, especially if Afghanistan actually stabilizes for once in 40 years. Plus it sits as a physical crossroads between West Asia and East Asia, South Asia and North (and Central) Asia. All this won't happen overnight of course, or even within a few years. Give it about a decade and you may see this unfold.

As for Taliban governance, expect a return to the 1996-2001 period but not as repressive.
>There are contradictions. We were allowed in to film, for example. And we passed billboards that featured pictures of Western women advertising dental clinics - a far cry from the days when the Taliban banned such images.

>Despite the internet ban, there are wi-fi hotspots providing a connection to the outside world. A few dedicated fans of Turkish and Indian soap operas have televisions connected to small satellite dishes.

>"Aren't you scared the Taliban will find out?" I asked one teenager. "They know about our TV and the wi-fi," he said. "But I think they are just watching and waiting, to see what happens."

>During our visit, we were aware that the Taliban were treating us carefully, mindful of creating a good impression. Equally, Sangin and Musa Qala are important to them, so keeping local people happy matters. We heard reports that Taliban control in other places was more rigid.

>For the Taliban, beginning to adapt in the face of modernity seems to be a painful dilemma: embrace it and you lose control and religious legitimacy; reject it and you become an island.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40171379
Anonymous
fe525c3
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No.310802
tuk.jpeg
>The Taliban Tell Turkey Its Plan to Do Uncle Sam’s Bidding Won’t Fly
>The US wants Turkish troops that are guarding Kabul airport to stay
https://news.antiwar.com/2021/06/18/taliban-says-a-continued-turkish-troop-presence-in-afghanistan-is-unacceptable/