/mlpol/ - Syria General /sg/ - Lines in the Sand Edition

Yusha YuseefVerified account @MIG29_

>Syrian Army military operation will start in Eastern Ghouta where HTS controlled
>" Jobar , Harasta and Ain Tarmah "

https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/967494717238923265

I sincerely hope that's not the entire scope of the operation. Lemme explain a very good strategy for cracking Eastern Ghouta nut (pun intended).

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The reason that Ghouta has been such a hard nut to crack (seriously, just look at the shape of the pocket, the memes write themselves) is because SAA has been focusing on single sectors (Harasta, Irbin, Nashabiya, Ein Tarma, Jobar) at a time, which means the Jihadis only have to reinforce a single sector with all available reserves. This results in a greater concentration of enemy fighters that the SAA has to kill or push back, and thus the battle is much harder.
However, if SAA pressured the pocket along multiple frontlines, the Jihadis have to spread their reinforcements thin in order to hold all the frontlines against a numerically and logistically superior enemy - they may even have to choose which areas to lose and which to hold.

The question then becomes "which areas are they willing to lose in order to stave off their inevitable defeat?". They might withdraw from Nashabiya/Hezrama in order to shorten their own frontlines. However, this also shortens the SAA frontlines, which means more soldiers for SAA to (re)deploy to other fronts in the pocket - so it wouldn't change much save for putting the Jihadis in the same situation as before, but in a worse position. Therefore, they are highly likely to put up a hard fight in Nashabiya/Hezrama and Autaya.
However, if Autaya is capped by SAA, the pocket will collapse like what we saw back in 2016. The collapse will accelerate if SAA captures Shifuniya at the same time as Autaya.
Therefore, Autaya/Shifuniya are key cities the Jihadis MUST hold in order to stave off a complete collapse of the pocket from the east, even at the cost of redeploying defenders from the urban areas in the west to the farmlands of the east.

So, if the choice came to "what areas are we willing to lose in order to slow down the collapse of the pocket?", the Jihadis might choose to deploy a large amount of their reinforcements to the eastern regions of the pocket at the cost of losing some urban areas in the west.

Here is my plan for taking out Ghouta pocket:
>Red: SAA/Tigers take over Nashabiya/Hezrama and move to Autaya to improve SAA logistics in that sector, and enable power projection into the rest of the pocket. After which, the SAA/RG will redeploy to other fronts, and Tiger regroups and readies for the real advance.
>Note: The SAA/RG on the western front will attack various urban areas at the same time as Nashabiya op is ongoing, in a bid to split the Jihadist defenders along two fronts - reducing their effective defense and counterattack power.

>Pink: Tiger's charge to the western frontline of the pocket. He will go to Hawsh al-Ashari, creating a large bulge in the frontline as well as punching holes in the Jihadist defenses. This also has the effect of outflanking several positions in Ghouta (Muhammadiya/Beit Naem, Shifuniya/Hawsh Dawahirah), enabling the SAA/RG to attack them from multiple flanks - increasing the chances of quick victory.
>After Hawsh Ashari, the Tiger will charge to Beit Sawa -> Mesraba -> Madyara, and then linkup with the SAA in Armored Vehicles Base - thus splitting the pocket into two, and isolating Duma from the rest of the pocket.

>Blue: There's a chance Tiger could play it safe at first, and go Shifuniya/Hawsh Dawahira axis, before charging straight to Mesraba -> Madyara, but I suspect this will be the advance of 4th Mechanized that occurs at the same time as Tiger's advance - meaning that Pink/Blue will happen at the same time, with Tiger assaulting (jej) Beit Sawa at the same time that 4th Mechanized is assaulting Mesraba, and then Tiger goes to Madyara while 4th Mechanized goes to Satra to establish a buffer zone between Duma and Madyara - thus flanking Harasta from three flanks including it's most vulnerable flank: the rear.
>The 4th Mechanized might even go so far as to attacking Harasta from the rear while SAA/RG attacks from the front, clearing out the district and removing another defensive line for Duma city, with Rayhan being the last defense before the city proper.

>Orange: Not likely, but should be mentioned - Tiger could go to Beit Naem/Muhammadiya, then go to Aftris and swing north to Hawsh Ashari. However, I suspect that an SAA/RG unit will be given the task of clearing out Beit Naem/Muhammadiya axis after Tiger clears out Hawsh Ashari (so that Beit Naem/Muhammadiya will be flanked from three sides instead of two like in this scenario - which is why I said it's unlikely)

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After which, the frontlines will take on the shape of second pic related. The SAA will present surrender terms to the Jihadis - with greenbusses to Idlib. If they refuse...
>Orange (second pic): Tiger will attack Rayhan while SAA/RG attacks Jisreen, thus completely isolating Duma city and removing all of the defenses around the city, and the urban areas in the SW will be completely cut off from the farmlands so the SAA can simply starve them out.
>For reference: Darayya/Muadimiya pocket(s) surrendered when SAA took almost all of the farmlands and the Jihadis had only the urban areas.

>be FSA
>get funding and weapons from most of West and Arabian Peninsula
>get ready for revolt
>get Mukhabarated
>skip few months
>go again
>get btfo
>gas myself to get at Assad
>it does nothing
>invite AQI to help
>get cucked when AQI turns into ISIS and half your members join them
>invite REAL AQ to help
>get cucked as they take over
>invite other jihadis to diversify our forces
>get cucked as they fight AQ for control instead of our enemy
>try to rally everyone to attack Assad
>AQ cucks you, repeatedly to push a ceasfire they break a week later
>despite all the support of the West and Gulf States, still lose battles
>fight like literal niggers
>Jihadis are more interested in pleasure than fighting
>finally btfo Assad
>Russia steps in
>get bombed
>get barrel bombed
>get cluster bombed
>get thermobaric bombed
>get parachute bombed
>get MLRS'd
>lose link to Aleppo pocket
>launch operation to link up
>1345 phases later, get btfo
>launch media campaign for Aleppo pocket featuring 144 last hospitals/bakeries
>only libshits buy it
>useless fat amerilards
>lose pocket because quitters
>quitters come to Idlib and start fighting again
>except they're fighting us over a pack of cigarettes
>get btfo by Assad
Al-Bukamal 2016 saga
>be NSyA (New Syrian Army - aka NSA Syria Branch)
>get training and weapons from US/UK/Israel/Jordan
>get sent across Jordanian border to attack ISIS in Tanf
>seize Tanf
>YAY, GAINS
>btfo ISIS by capturing empty desert
>YAY GAINZ
>btfo ISIS even more by capturing even more empty desert
>YAY GAINZ
>reach SAA frontlines
>fug, they have 3 soldiers
>TURNBACKTURNBACKTURNBACKTURNBACKTURNBACKTURNBACKTURNBACKTURNBACKTURNBACKTURNBACKTURNBACK
>decide to attack ISIS even more
>btfo by capturing empty desert all the way up the border to al-Bukamal
>YAY GAINZ
>city looks empty
>get greedy, maybe we can cap it!
>YAYLLYELELYLLELYLLEYLE FSA STRONK
>enter city, no resistance
>YAY GAINZ
>ISIS counterattack begins
>FUGGG, FASCISTS ATTACKING US!
>get routed
>lose 60 out of 150 soldiers
>get btfo
>ISIS is chasing us all the way down the border
>they reach al-Tanf
>we huddle while burgers/bongs fight them for us
>barely fight ISIS off
>Burgers scream our ears off at our incompetence
>take a hiatus
And there was not a single peep out of them for several months
>gas myself to get at Assad
>it changes little
>Turkey steps in
>they get bogged down in one city against a gang of ISIS faggots for three months
>they get cucked as Assad captures everything to the south of that city
>we attack Hama
>get btfo
>gas myself again to get at Assad
>Trump launches $60B worth of missiles at an airbase that suffers very little damage and is operational again in 24 hours
>get barrelbombed by aircraft from that airbase
>get btfo again
>get ceasefire
>Jihadis fight each other again
>get btfo everywhere
>get direct help from burgers at al-Tanf via airstrkes against advancing Assad militias and military bases
>get cucked as SAA just goes around them and reach Iraq
>we get btfo again
>Assad btfos ISIS
>we get btfo by ourselves
>gas ourselves many times to get at Assad
>fucking western media won't cover it
>quake as Suheil ravages ISIS boipuccis
>AQ starts civil war #3516
>AQ btfos us
>AQ seizes half of Idlibstan and greenbuses us to Aleppostan
>Trump sees our Zinki beheading video and has a change of heart
>ends funding to us
>stupid fat orange useless amerilard with a bad haircut
>get cucked by US in the south as they demand we turn over anything that we can use to shell Assad with
>Surrender to our enemy to spite our masters
>Assad laughs his ass off at the absolute state of us, before barrelbombing us
>Israel airstrikes Assad and we launch an offensive
>Said offensive gets repelled, despite Israeli help
>Launch Hama offensive #559
>At the end, the net gain is ONE village
>Despite being defeated in Uqayribat, ISIS pops up in NE Hama
>What is this sorcery?
>AQ btfos ISIS, but SAA captures over 20 villages from us
>ISIS pops up AGAIN and btfos us.
>ISIS sorcery again.
>SAA laughs at the state of us, while btfoing us.
>Turkey invades Syria!
>in Idlibstan
>With us as the enemy
>Why do you do this to us?
>We bog Turkey down, but only after they cockblock shitty K*rds from advancing in Idlibstan
>E. Ghouta pocket launches offensive in Harasta
>SAA repels the offensive with 2:1 KD ratio in favor of SAA
>SAA proceeds to btfo yet another pocket near the Israeli border
>after said pocket btfos itself
>SAA btfos ISIS in East Syria
>redeploys Suheil to >rape us
>AQ defects back to AQ
>Launch Hama offensive #663
>Seize one village and checkpoint
>Lose them the same day
>Btfo ourselves as we btfo ISIS Hama Pocket Sorcerers
>Suheil launches Abu Dhuhur Offensive
>Run and leave behind cripples to get their boipuccis ravaged
>Meanwhile, rip off Russians and kotel SAA in East Ghouta
>Get btfo
>Meanwhile, in Abu Dhuhur, we send reinforcements to Sinjar
>AQ cucks us by stopping them
>HTSAA confirmed
>Lose Sinjar
>Lose everything up to Abu Dhuhur
>Launch ebin counteroffensive
>Make minor gains
>Get btfo when weather clears
>Lose Abu Dhuhur AFB/City because everyone else is going to Afrin
>Launch Afrin OP
>Turkey is helping us with airstrikes and sheit
>Cross border
>Get btfo by rag-tag PKKshitters
>Attack mountain
>Get btfo by mud and fog
>capture mountain after much effort
>BTFO PKKshitters
>make slow gains against an inferior enemy
>Tiger goes to East Ghouta
>Get bombed
>Get barrel bombed
>Get cluster bombed
>Get thermobaric bombed
>Get parachute bombed
>Get MLRS'd
>UN calls for ceasefire
>Russian AF breaks cease fire 12 minutes after it is declared
>Tiger launches
>Gas yourself to get at Assad
>Meanwhile, AQ instigates Civil War #22374
>Other Jihadis btfo AQ
>AQ btfo us
>We btfo ourselves
>We form new group and disband it in two hours
Such is life in the FSA

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