>>304669
When it comes down to it the way balkanization would go is dependent on politics, culture/ethnicity, willingness to secede and circumstances.
>politics
Obviously blue states are unlikely to join up with red states, and red counties are unlikely to side with blue cities on their own. The War Between the States was precisely that, and emblematic of a more civilized time. Maryland was very close to joining the Confederacy and the only reason it didn't was because state senators were unlawfully detained. Today it would not be so simple, because state officials are weak men, the decline of state-level power and political divides as strong as those in the country at large. For example, most of Virginia hates Fairfield and neighboring counties chock full of federal employees, and ditto for Oregon and Washington for the coast. So in the event of balkanization two possibilities would happen: a state (unlikely) announces its secession from the Union and dissident counties would themselves secede from the state, or clusters of counties would themselves declare independence after finding state authority intolerable. Neither would be likely strong enough to resist federal authority so this could only happen if the country at large falls into chaos.
Clusters of counties may or may not join up with like-minded counties and the reasons why depends on "circumstances" which I'll cover later. If the spirit of revolt is alive in enough counties and they have a lot in common, you may de facto see states secede without central authority as even locales that disagree are "forced" to go along by virtue of being surrounded. In a lot more states, you might see division into three or more parts, with even county lines being made irrelevant. Also keep in mind that places that are nominally aligned will go their own way or actively dislike each other; Seattle would become actively socialist and less likely to associate with more mainstream Democrat strongholds.
>culture
See the Nine Nations of America which may become a reality if secession movements become heavily coordinated and intent on setting up "mini-Americas." If balkanization is much smaller in scale you would see stronger division based on local cultures and ethnic groups. See >pic related. Hardly any states would remain intact then as sub-regions would split off to stay more homogeneous. This would exist even in the South but would be much more apparent in the Northeast as inland counties break away from a power structure dominated by cities. Major power centers like NYC and LA, if not badly impacted by conflict, would create relatively large city-states with outlying territories populated by commuters.
Ethnostates would definitely spring up though the country will not be divided into singular countries for every race like one would think (which would be impossible without moving entire populations about). Rather you'd see small, different ethnostates scattered about. There would be a few explicitly white ethnostates in more inland, conservative parts of the country but most would exist de facto or may loosen restrictions like allowing based Hispanics tired of black people. Black ethnostates would exist wherever there are black people and would probably be the first ones to spring up, both because they're eager and because redpilled regions would see this as the only solution. Hispanic ethnostates would spring up, but these would exist in areas with more first-gen immigrants and "La Raza" mentality; bordering sections would try to join with Mexico. Other Hispanics would either carve out their place in what's left of multicultural cities or join with "fellow white people." Asians are not very politically minded but if push came to shove would also split into city-ethnostates; whether these would fall under Chinese influence or resist it depends on political orientation.
>willingness to secede
Whoever tries to secede first would pay for it in blood as there would be a hostile occupying force moving in ASAP, prompting an extended guerrilla campaign. Despite the destruction and misery this could actually pay off if other places are emboldened and the country breaks part, as neighboring areas would join with the original guerrillas. The more willing a place is to go off on its own, the more likely it will be able to set its own rules rather than fall under the purview of a state or neighboring government.
>circumstances
If states actually grow some cajones, you would see most individual states or coalitions of states (like a revived CSA) split off themselves rather than balkanize into counties. Also it depends on the level of conflict that comes about. If certain groups curry favor with the remnants of the federal government they are more likely to create larger, more aggressive regions. Aggression is likely to cause balkanized areas to form at least looseknit confederations for common defense, whereas a lack of war would permit county or even subcounty division. Multicultural areas will see more conflict for sure, which may be averted if a multilateral rejection of intersectionalism in favor of ethnostates is embraced.