>>253924>The first couple days are when it should be at its most volatileIt’s probably worth mentioning at this point that there is no time stamp on the image with the 29,000 reviews and the 38,000. There is really no reason to believe that they were even taken in different days. But to address the point, why would it be volatile?
>with fewer reviews, each individual vote should coubt for more and thereby contribute to fluctuations.If there were 100 reviews, this would be true, as one negative review could alter the percentage. But we’re not at 100 reviews, we’re at 300 times 100 reviews, and each review does not alter the total. 29,000 reviews is more reviews than most movies get over the entire course of their run. Alita Battle Angel, for instance, had 32000 reviews on total, and that was also a blockbuster action film. Antman and the Wasp only ever 23,000.
I don’t know if you have ever taken a class in statistics, and it has been many years since I have, so the mathematics behind it are difficult to explain in detail. But once you get past a sample size of around 1500, random chance I’d not going to cause the mean of the sample to vary much. The vast majority of opinion polls, for instance, have samples of less than 1500. 29000 is a
huge sample size, and variation based on random chance is extremely improbable.
>You have to consider how RT's user-review system worksThe only thing that matters for these purposes is if RT’s user review system is any different in how it measures things than it was 3 days ago, and it almost certainly isn’t. If the user review system is shitty, then it is equally shitty compared to how it was on Friday and so should produce the sane results as it did then. Nothing has changed.
> It's not as though users are just consistently choosing a rating of 86%Well obviously. 86% of reviewers are giving a score of 3.5 or higher and 14% are giving it a score of less than 3.5 and the numbers make that pretty obvious.
> you would have at least expected minor variations, especially at the beginningAnd there probably were variations at the beginning, back when there were 100 or 1000 or 3000 reviews. But we aren’t looking at screen shots of when there were 100 and 1000 reviews. But we are well past the beginning. We are at past 29000 reviews, more reviews than most films get in their entire run.
>The score shouldn't stabilize like this til later, as reviews slow down and the public comes to a more general consensus on the filmAnd the consensus of opening weekend is that 86% liked the film. Maybe they’d feel differently if polled in a year? Random chance by itself is not going to cause this number to change, and it would take a vast change in opinion to change the average of the whole at all
>It's worth noting that Rise of Skywalker has had the least profitable opening weekend of any Star Wars film since Disney bought the franchise, which is itself an indicator that it's not being very well-received, and is therefore inconsistent with a viewer-approval rating of 86%Orrrrrrrr it means that people who didn’t like the Last Jedi and knew they wouldn’t like this one never went to see this one. How well a film does in its opening weekend is about how good people
think it will be, and about how well marketed it is. Things like word of mouth and audience reviews won’t even make a difference until the second weekend when people have had the chance to hear what other people think of it. The Rise of Skywalker has the disadvantage of being released after The a Last Jedi. That’s bad marketing that scares off viewers. It’s also poorly reviewed by critics. But that doesn’t mean that the people who do show up to watch it don’t enjoy it.