/mlpol/ - My Little Politics

>founder of the once CIA-sponsored Nour al-Din al-Zinki militia, Tawfiq Shahabuddin, is said to have been released by Turkish authorities after a year in prison and it is expected that he will be deported to the occupied north today
I can't stop laughing at this before and after pic.

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Ukrainians capture Sviatohirsk and advance towards Lyman
Corrected situation in Kupiansk

Interesting, the RuAF are using Su-34's to drop bombs in Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/Taurevanime/status/1570231142019911682
RuAF has by my knowledge only been using Su-25's and helicopters to carry out frontline sorties using rockets until now.

>>352144
>RuAF are using Su-34's to drop
That's a very expensive bomb delivery. I guess they are doing it from above 5,000m to avoid manpads.

>>352146
Check the video in link, they're flying really low.
Big risk, they obviously fear getting spotted by radar systems more than manpads.

>>352162
Yup, you are right.

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Ukrainians cross the Oskil river and seize Kupiansk in full, along with a minor advance on Lyman

>>350565
I've seen multiple claims and reports of the Russians advancing on the southern Bakhmut axis the last few days.
If everything is to be believed the map should look something like this.
Locations including the winery in the industrial zone of Bakhmut city, the small village of Mayorsk on the N/W outskirts of Horlivka city, the hamlets of Mykolaivka (+Mykolaivka Druha), the Donbasskaya electrical sub-station and finally Zaitseve.
Mykolaivka and Mayorsk are springboards to bypass the fortified cliff (curved blue line) in order to capture Kurdiumivka town - the ukrops has claimed to have fought back a storming attempt of said town, probably coming from Mykolaivka direction.

I was wrong about Kurdiumivka not being a target, it gives an impression of the Russians planning to use the canal that runs from west of Mayorsk to east of Chasiv Yar as a dividing line to take Bakhmut.
If they make a big push to capture Soledar they are probably going to encircle Bakhmut from the north, but for now if they capture Kurdiumivka they will have a strong road to enter Bakhmut from the south with.

>>352342
Autistic trivia about the canal i mentioned: It's inlets starts in Slavyansk from the Seversky Donets river and ends up in Donetsk city. There are many gaps where it runs through pipes or underground which makes excellent chokepoints.
The ukrops can't destroy these chokepoints like they always do with bridges so it will be interesting to see how hard they will defend it.

>>352344
>chokepoints
>so it will be interesting to see how hard they will defend it
It sounds like an ideal situation to wait with a couple of Kornet systems.

>>352348
Add a healthy amount of land mines and yourself have a pretty ideal defensive line.

Russian accounts are starting to talk about a mobilisation, I'm starting to question my assumption they would cuck. Anyone want to take a guess the scale of this assuming it isn't another meme?

300K mobilization, force in Ukraine essentially doubled.

Strelkov reunpunished.

>>352439
Unbelievable.

ayoo putin finna boutta push the button
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-signs-decree-mobilisation-says-west-wants-destroy-russia-2022-09-21/
>Putin orders partial Russian mobilisation
>"If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people - this is not a bluff," Putin said in a televised address to the nation.
so if ukrops get too close to crimea we can expect either a full mobilisation or some limited use of tactical nuclear weapons?

now this is getting spicy

>>352444
>so if ukrops get too close to crimea we can expect either a full mobilisation or some limited use of tactical nuclear weapons?
All the territory they've seized in Ukraine will be considered as a part of Russia "after" the referendums, so yes tactical nukes is on the menu if the ukrops' offensives get out of hand and it's a given that they're already mobilizing manpower for the active fronts.
Odessa and Kharkov SOON™

>>352457
>will be considered as a part of Russia "after" the referendums
officially yes, but i don't think it will unofficially to trigger Butin's ultimatum
i think the line to not cross will be pre war russian's territory to garner more legitimacy in the eyes of the world in case of escalation

>>352461
You're probably right, dropping nukes is not good optics.
Besides, the uptick in manpower is what it's all about really.

>>351102
Chonky Iranian hardware on parade in Sanaa
Video:
https://twitter.com/abdullahelsagaf/status/1572681589733339137

>>352444
>tactical nuclear weapons
Disclaimer: I don't believe that nukes exist. That said and for the sake of the argument, the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be more than retarded as would irradiate and poison the Russian troops and the Russian civilians along the border.

>>352509
>I don't believe that nukes exist
peak america moment
> would irradiate and poison the Russian troops and the Russian civilians along the border.
nah nuclear weaponry is different to nuclear accidents such as fukushima and chernobyl, they are dropped in air and tend to dissipate in a couple of days. their power comes from the energy blast in itself, not the spreading of (long lasting) isotopes (like when nuclear reactors leak)
hence why hiroshima and nagasaki are liveable as of today but not fukushima

>>352509
>I don't believe that nukes exist.
What is so hard to believe about nuclear weapons existing? Nuclear fission releases a fuckton of energy at once, and that energy is substantial to create a large explosion. Once you have the nuclear energy components the bomb itself is not a difficult concept.

>>352558
I would say that detonating nuclear weapons so close to your own border is still irresponsible, but considering we're dealing with Slavs I think they'll just do it anyway.

>>352563
>so close to your own borde
who said anything about detonating them in contested territory?
you could always toss em at odessa or kiev

The nukes most likely to be dropped if it gets to that (doubt it) aren't the massive city annihilating ones.
The warheads on the Iskander-M and Kalibr missiles are roughly 1/10 the weight and generate far less radiation than the ones dropped on Japan.

>>352573
There's even 100kg artillery shells that's 1/4 the payload of the missiles i mentioned.
Drop one of those badboys in whatever forest you think the enemy is gathering forces in and offensive is over.

>>349770
>>352342
The ukrops blew up a road bridge in Bakhmut.
There's still the road on the dam to the south, one hell of a bottleneck.

So apparently the STC took a huge swath of Yemen during an offensive against Hadi forces and then later AQAP starting in late August and throughout this month.

Yemen Shitmupdate
STC takes control of most of Shabhwa province, take full control of Abyan province, kick Hadi out of Dhale province altogether, and secure the entire coastline in Hadhramaut province.

>>352685
edit: not full control of Abyan province but close to it

Ukraine shitmupdate from yesterday
Ukrainians continue advance on Lyman
Russians seize control of electrical substation to the east of Bakhmut (gains shown but icon isn't shown)

is the ak supposed to look like this

>>352694
A wire brush and acetone will clean those right up. What pussies.

>>352694
They look like were not oiled and after years in storage corrosion did its thing.

>>352694
You have to question if Russia's nuclear arsenal is even functional at this point. Everything else has gone to shit, why expect their nuclear arsenal to be in perfect condition?
Of course, it's not something you want to test.

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Ukrainians continue their advance in Kharkiv and northern Donetsk oblast, crossing the Oskil river in more locations and surrounding Lyman on 3 sides.

>>352694
>>352957
Theyre for drills.

>>352694
What an absolute disgrace.

>>352958
Lyman lost.

>>353131
Taken by the ukrops?

>>353132
Yep

>>353136
Which begs the question. Where are the Russian soldiers and their hardware? If they were moved to another location, why the top brass didn't patch the hole with more fresh ones?
The Russian army is huge, so the excuse that they have no manpower won't fly.

>>353139
>Where are the Russian soldiers and their hardware?
They retreated from Lyman before getting encircled, supposedly setting up a defensive line in the Severdonetsk direction.
I can't figure out why they keep retreating really.

>>353139
>The Russian army is huge, so the excuse that they have no manpower won't fly.
Why would they invoke a draft it manpower weren't a scarcity?

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Ukrainians advance on Lyman and capture the city
Minor Ukrainian advances in Kharkiv

>>353144
Because as Strelkov said, the level of losses is unsustainable without replenishment. So, the best and more combat proven soldiers are fighting and dying, then in order to reach a sustainable equilibrium, useless cannon fodder needs to be added to the mix.

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Ukrainians continue advance in northern Donetsk and eastern Kharkiv, and achieve a breakthrough in northern Kherson oblast

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Ukrainians make a major breakthrough in Kherson oblast, and reenter northern Luhansk oblast

>>353372
Any reports on Ukrainian casualty rates?
If I understand correctly, Ukraine has mobilized ~1mil troops atm, with general mobilization continuing til November this year.

>>353380
>1mil troops atm
That's propaganda. Think about it, from where Ukraine is going to get 1m uniforms, 1 m helmets, 1m rifles, 4 million meals a day... it is all BS.

>>353382
>4 million meals a day
america moment

>>353382
From the modern day Lend-Lease????????????????????????????
>4 million meals
>4 meals a day
?????????????
What kind of pig eats 4 meals a day?

>>353434
Breakfast, lunch, supper, dinner.

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Ukrainians make small advances in Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts

apparently ukrops blew up the crimean bridge
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-ria-state-agency-reports-fuel-tank-fire-kerch-bridge-crimea-2022-10-08/
still partially functional
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63183404

i wonder if putin will actually grow a pair and nuke a ukrainian city as retaliation as he has promised

>>353590
Dream on.

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Ukrainians advance into Luhansk oblast from another sector of Kharkiv oblast, and secure a settlement along the Khakovka reservoir in Kherson oblast

>Ukraine Military Summary And Analysis October 9, 2022
https://rumble.com/v1n8urk-ukraine.-military-summary-and-analysis-09.10.2022.html
Mirror:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/aK13RuJgWm4r/

>Russian strikes hit heart of capital
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-63193124

apparently putin did send retaliatory strikes toward the ukraine's capital

Extremely rare Syria Shitmupdate
The main point of focus is the infighting between Nusra and FSA has resumed with Nusra marching into Afrin itself and taking over several localities

>>353963
How did the Turks let this happen? I'm surprised the Salvation Government hasn't been dealt with yet.

Ukraine Shitmupdate
This time, it features ROADS
>no changes that I can see, just has roads from now on

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Ukrainians make medium-scale advances into Luhansk oblast from Kharkiv, and secure a small village on the Kherson-Mykolaiv border near Snihurivka

I think we are seeing the ZOG's plans playing out that Israel want's Syria and they will use ever American and British solider to do it.

ukrops be thirsty
>Russian strikes hit Ukraine, most of Kyiv without water
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-black-sea-europe-kharkiv-870091b0922a131aefb2692bb88f5c6d

Congo Shitmupdate
M23 rebels take control of Rutshuru and Kiwanja, doubling their territory (but that's not much at all)

Pakistan is really going over the edge, I'm giving a +50% chance of civil war within 2 months.

Why does anyone give half a fuck about the Congo? It's just a bunch of tribal negroes killing each other like they have for thousands of years.

>>355379
Probably mineral resources + geopolitical chess.
China seems to think they're worth colonizing.

>>355379
Rwanda might go in again, which would be very exciting.

>>355380
China loaning money to niggers in return for nigger land is too slow. China should bribe niggers to get spayed and neutered like cats and all niggers should be sent to work camps that make Aushwitz look like a fucking spa.

>>352342
The battle for Bakhmut is still trudging along at a snails pace.
The foothold in the industrial zone has been abandoned/lost, probably due to the ukrops blowing up the bridge to central Bakhmut, lowering the strategic value of entering Bakhmut on the eastern side of the river: >>352589
I haven't seen much of anything in the Kurdiumivka direction but the Russians are still battling in the south and south-east of Bakhmut along the Bakhmutske river.
Here is a video of the Russians in the heights S/E of Bakhmut and in Ivanhrad (a chain of cottages parallel to Opytne (a village/suburb in Bakhmut) on the eastern side of the river) showing Opytne and Bakhmut in the background:
https://twitter.com/Taurevanime/status/1589421103499579393
On the western side of the river, Odradivka has been under Ru control for quite some time but the situation between it and Opytne is unknown for now. I'd keep my eyes on this area though.

The Russians are leaving Kherson, the Dniepr river will be the dividing line.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590368333727424512
https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1590417663515561986

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Russians abandon Kherson and everything west of the Dneipr, with the Ukrainians moving in behind them.

There was a recent hit on a port in Yemen by Houthi over oil money, this plus expiration of ceasefire deal is leading me to believe they want the war to restart but don't want to be blamed for doing it. Expect offensive operations to start within next 2 months when they can find a good enough excuse.

>>355482
Video of Wagner storming trenches around crossroads on S/E outskirts of Bakhmut
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1592239609031053312
Ukrop MTLB fleeing the location was targeted with ATGM
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1592231134183985152
Wagner also took trenches at the garbage sorting plant further down the road:
https://t.me/news_1tv/16161
This puts the Russians real close to the dam.

>>355797
On the southern end, on the western side of the Bakhmutovske river, Mayorsk has been captured (for real this time).
https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1592212704974213120
This advance paired with week old reports of Ru forces capturing trench strongholds along the road between Mykolaivka and Mayorsk means the road from Horlivka to Bakhmut (Opytne) theoretically is under Russian control, albeit still under partial UA fire control. The Russians will need to expand the buffer zone along the railway, towards the water canal and preferrably capturing Kurdiumivka (which is still under ukrop control) to enable mechanized forces an easy entrance into the southwestern environ of Bakhmut.

Ethiopia Shitmupdate
It's been a while and the situation is as stands:
Ethiopia and Eritrea launched joint invasion of Tigray region, leading to them seeking peace
Oromo revolts aren't nearly as widespread as previously portrayed

Overall, Ethiopia is looking a lot more stable now... for now.

>>355798
Andriivka, Ozarianivka and Zelenopolie captured by Wagner, Kurdiumivka likely already captured as well.
Next step is Klischiivka.

Remember Siversk front?
Spornoe reportedly captured, though from what i can see from this report, it's only the eastern part with a few cottages:
https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1597235147061235712

The United States has reduced the number of patrols with the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern Syria because of Turkey's strikes in the region, the Pentagon says. No U.S. troops redeployed so far ahead of a feared a Turkish ground invasion. https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1597657825949671425?s=20&t=Wk27ugZraXfbM503P_rAxg

>>356204
Kurdiumivka confirmed to be captured and Wagner are making progress into the Opytne neighborhood of Bakhmut city.
Furthermore, they control the intersection northeast of Bakhmut and have been trying to enter the city from that direction (seemingly without success).
There was a very ambitious report on Monday that the ukrops left Klischiivka and that the Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut road was under fire control. I have to hold (x) on the ukrops giving up the area between Klischiivka and Chasiv Yar on account of it being so heavily fortified though, maybe they left Klischiivka (which is in a river valley) for the heights overlooking it like they did in Kodema ( >>350643 )
and the reporter thinks being in mortar range of a road = fire control.
Anyways, things are getting hot.

press S to spit on khomeinoidistanipedomenschen and border jumping braindead sharting mongrels

SSS
S
S
S
SSS

Ukraine Shitmupdate
Russians take control of Zaitseve and Kurdyumivka to the south of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast

>>356258
The ukrops tried to counterattack Kurdiumivka, didn't end too well:
https://twitter.com/Taurevanime/status/1599576503959793665
Safe to say the report of fire control on the Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut road was misinformation tho, it's gonna take a while to clear the fields and hedgerows on the way to Klischiivka.
From what can be seen on pre-war satellite imagery, the Klischiivka defensive line is well prepared (blue shapes = trench fortifications) and the forest belt on the height overlooking the village is probably entirely fortified by now.
In my opinion, the Russians' best bet is to nuke the trench fortification in the southwest and advance along the canal (green line). There will be tons of ukrop ATGM vids no matter what path they choose, but going into Klischiivka directly is suicidal.

>>356332
At this point having fire control on the Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut road is pointless though and putting Bakhmut in the kotel from only this axis is impossible without engaging in urban warfare in Bakhmut city.
Something might happen in the Soledar direction soon.

>>356334
>International Legion Fighters In Heavy Firefight With Russian Forces Backed By T-90 Tank In Bakhmut
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsU74ubgHMQ
The Russians have a foothold in the northeastern forest of Bakhmut, interesting.
Not a whole lot has been published about this axis from Ru sources, there's been a lot of chatter about Pidhorodne being captured but so far nothing verified.
Ukrop artillery and drone bomblet videos proves it's not out of the realm of possibilites that the Russians are close to or have even captured the village.
No Russian movements in Soledar/Bakhmutske yet, only artillery working.

>>356334
>>356352
Yakovlivka east/northeast of Soledar was reportedly captured yesterday:
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1600454155172163585
This opens the northern flank of Soledar.

The Russians reportedly also crossed the canal west of Kurdiumivka and are attacking Dyliyivka/Bila Hora.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=48.462791&lon=37.943344&z=13&gz=0;378811168;484623361;18882;4553;0;194613;700378;67155;42915;0
Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, expanding buffer zone, wandering into poorly defended areas for the sake of gains or fake news?
All i know is Russia is turning up the heat for real and it's not only around Bakhmut - Avdiivka/New York direction is also seeing increased activity.

>>356301
neat!

Jihadi Julian was doomposting geolocation updates on Bakhmut front yesterday. He's still too optimistic about Opytne but the rude awakening will be entertaining.

>>356334
>>356458
>The Russian Army enters residential areas. The defense line of the 71st mountain brigade in Bakhmut was broken through and Russian troops advanced along Pervomaisky Lane to the intersection with Dobrolyubov.
Furthermore, the train overpass at the northern entrance of Bakhmut was blown up by the ukrops, blocking vehicles to and from the Slavyansk direction (there are still dirt roads though).
Reportedly because Wagner has entered Pidhorodne.
It's odd though, i figured they'd blow up the bridge over Bakhmutovske river (white square) first.

Wagner map.

Here is my guess.

Vucic is probably my least favourite sovereign leader in power currently. I expect nothing from the man and he still disappoints me.

>>357019
He's supposedly secured another nine or ten nations' de-recognition of Kosovo this year. This would mean a majority of UN member states support Serbia's stance now.
>https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/serbia-claims-9-countries-withdrew-recognition-of-kosovo/2779938
>https://menafn.com/1105382487/Serbia-Another-nation-prepared-to-remove-its-recognition-of-Kosovo