>>401221Sorry for replying late, I don't have much free time for long messages. You know, some time ago I read an article about the contradictions in the reports on the helicopter incident (read it assassination) involving Raisi. The positions of the helicopters, the likely timing, the number of bodies found versus the number announced... every part of it had gaps and inconsistencies. It really didn't look like an accident. Especially that phone call supposedly made by the Friday prayer leader while he was dying, that alone suggests some kind of manipulation or assassination.
It looked like a deliberate removal. But unlike many people who claim israel did it, or even that the leader himself ordered it, I think it was actually the reformists. It may sound strange, but the reformists basically want a kind of controlled revolution or collapse so they can rebuild the system in their own format (something like the transition from the S.U to the Russian federation). Let's remember: reformists are essentially political elites looking for their own benefit (clever oligarchs) and unlike the principlists, they are relatively more logical. They've always tried to force changes that would take power away from the principlists. Even though they themselves were part of the radical revolutionary generation of 79, they later rebranded themselves as "reformists".
Even Ahmadinejad, to some extent, was one of their projects aimed at the principlists, someone who wasn't part of the first revolutionary generation and was shaped to confront the leader (their biggest obstacle). Let's not forget that as president he had a kind of political clash and cold war with Khamenei, disappearing for days. His extremism in various issues was supposed to play the role of an "Shrek edition of prince Charming" strategy, someone who looked both traditional and rebellious, sold as a miracle of the new millennium. But in reality he was a proud, emotional populist whose behavior was meant to make people eventually hate anyone like him. Later, in 2009, the plan was that protests over his supposed election fraud would lead to the fall of the Leader and a complete structural reform of the system with the reformists taking full power. But the 2009 protests failed, and with it, the reformists' "change from within" project also failed.
Then came the Rouhani project and the JCPOA, a way to buy time, regain influence, and prepare Rouhani as the future Leader. (Of course, this leadership would have been temporary, he would then reform the system and remove concepts like the supreme leader entirely, shifting the government toward a federal style republic.) Rouhani wasn't stupid. Yes, he was a terrible president and harmed Iran, but that doesn't mean he was foolish or purposeless. His goal was leadership, and the presidency was just political credential building. He's much more experienced than people think, about 90% of his positions have been in intelligence and security, meaning he had access to almost everything and was a professional in that field.
Their biggest problem was a man named Raisi, more experienced, more alert, and more practical than most principlists. His influence in key organizations, the political system, the media, and even with Khamenei made him a dangerous obstacle to the reformists' long term plans. Almost everyone believed he was the 1# candidate for succession. Until then, the reformists were basically playing the principlists like pieces on a chessboard, because truthfully reformists think and act more academically, logically, and strategically (even if they still mess things up). They themselves created many of the iconic concepts of the system, then pushed principlists forward to act as overzealous defenders. Gashte ershad, mandatory hijab laws, and even calling the leader "Imam" all began with reformists, but it's the principlists who now defend them. And whenever needed, the reformists turned principlists against one another, in the 90s or even in recent elections, when they pushed Qalibaf and Jalili supporters into fighting, which helped them slip Pezeshkian into the presidency.