>>392472>>401111Multi-polar world will crumble in next two decades, when rifts will grow into ravines. The most possible future of our world is pan-regions, the reborn empires, which will be hostile to each other. Modern technologies allow full localization of current world industry inside 500-1000 million core of urbanized population with energy flow about 150 exajoules (EJ), 300Mt steel and 300Mt food. This reindustrialization will need about 20-30 years and 20-40 EJ energy surplus over consumption. Considering current flow of 650 EJ and 1300 EJ in 2050s there is possibility for 3 strong alliances in future world.
Best possible strategy for USA is Latino-America:
- AUKUS+ -- 1134 million population, 156/182 EJ energy, 156Mt steel, 939Mt cereals, 389/1400 ha fields.
- AUKUS+ -- 161 GJ energy per capita, 138kg steel, 698kg cereals (2.4 ton with 2.9 man per hectare)
In this scenario spics from republican party control USA. Both Americas united in trade union to kick out Chinese influence. Surplus of energy used for wartime economy. AUKUS replaced NATO to maintain prolonged war against China in South-East Asia.
Most vulnerable part of G7 is European Union:
- EU and Norway -- 454 million population, 60/28 EJ energy, 127Mt steel, 317 Mt cereals, 100/1400M ha fields.
- EU and Norway -- 62 GJ energy per capita, 280kg steel, 698kg cereals (3.2 ton with 4.5 man per hectare)
There is no possible future for confederation with energy consumption two times bigger than production. In AUKUS+ scenario Europe collapsed to 50% of current GDP, when all energy, currently delivered to Europe, will be used for war economy.
Before the war we made a lot of efforts to build Euro-Russia confederation:
- Euro-Russia -- 749 million population, 108/99 EJ energy, 214Mt steel, 572Mt cereals, 274/1400M ha fields.
- Euro-Russia -- 132 GJ energy per capita, 286kg steel, 764kg cereals (2.1 ton with 2.7 man per hectare)
This variant still possible to save Europe, but Russia change attention to make alliance with southern anti-China countries.
Currently Russia focus diplomatic efforts to southern strategy:
- India-Russia -- 2393 million population, 150/140 EJ energy, 463Mt steel, 924Mt cereals, 430/1400 ha fields.
- India-Russia -- 59 GJ energy per capita, 194kg steel, 386kg cereals (2.2 ton with 5.6 man per hectare)
This alliance also includes Japan, North and South Korea, Vietnam, Iran. All nations who do not want to be seized by China or USA. But lack of energy supply makes industrialization impossible if China doesn't collapsed during war.
Confederation of Islamic nations also possible with same objective:
- Islamic world -- 1171 million population, 80/148 EJ energy, 136Mt steel, 285Mt cereals, 178/1400 ha fields.
- Islamic world -- 126 GJ energy per capita, 116kg steel, 243kg cereals (1.6 ton with 6.6 man per hectare)
They must be friendly with USA, Europe or Russia just because of food security, otherwise their efforts will failed. Except only tricky opportunity, if they manages to provoke global nuclear war, the next century will be century of Islamic world.
Finally, major candidate for world domination:
- Chinese empire -- 3220 million population, 336/349 EJ energy, 1376Mt steel, 1334Mt cereals, 463/1400M ha fields.
- Chinese empire -- 108 GJ energy per capita, 427kg steel, 414kg cereals (2.9 ton with 7 man per hectare)
This world possible if China occupy South-East Asia (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Indonesia) and seize full control over energy flows from Persian Gulf and Russia. India totally fucked, Europe unimaginable fucked, Russia and Iran losing their industry and Latino-America closed inside their pan-region.