/mlpol/ - My Little Politics

>>154706
>The financial capital of the world will be shifting to China and Asia after 2032.
I highly doubt that.

>>154708
There is an argument that goes:
1) The economic centre tends to go where the gold is. See pic #1
2) Reserve currency status is not forever.

I guess we wait and see.

>>154710
https://etfdailynews.com/2013/10/03/what-china-means-for-the-gold-market/6/ for pic 1

>>154708
It will take some time but Shanghai has already grown to be a financial capital. China will need to open up more if it wants to grow. Regardless, however, a crash and burn across the West would send capital running to Asia.

He's been saying this for years now and it's obvious to anyone who's looked at the world impartially. Even if we got someone like Mr. H, which is impossible without complete counter-revolution, the uprooting of the entire corrupt system (and moving/dividing millions of people) would break the economic order.

I have little patience with idealists who say "we're white, we'll be on top right after we get rid of the griffons." It takes time for society to heal. The best we can hope for is that during the crash and burn most of the bad guys die and most of the good guys survive. We'd be isolated and a regional power at best regardless.

>>154710
>>154711
>>154713
First, gold has all but been replaced by oil, unfortunately, and while gold reserves still have value, they aren't near as all-powerful as oil reserves anymore.

Second, if the West falls, then China no longer has anyone to buy their goods for them. They can't exactly get money if no one buys anything.

Third, what exactly makes you think we're going towards an East-centric world economy, instead of an "every country for themselves" situation?

>>154713
Our lives are short, that allow us to have high arrogance and assumptions based on short experience.

Pic 1 is from MA. Also by the questionable IQ Test method Asians/China are the master race (except for Ashkenazi Jews) :P

https://www.iqtestforfree.net/average-IQ-by-country.html
https://isgp-studies.com/race-and-iq

>>154715
I myself don't know anything. I just observe as best I can. MA seems to do a pretty good job and he is the only person making predictions which will be testable. I do think his "secret sauce" is the recognition that birthrates have echoing effects down time. I do not know if civilizations have 309 year cycles, and I highly doubt it is that simplistic. The West does look extremely agitated, imagine another 20 or 30 years of retired boomers and immigration stress. Looks unaffordable to me. There is nothing yet that shows Armstrong's views are invalid. Nor have we proven them valid either.

Better to have a plan you don't need, than need a plan you don't have.

I am wondering how strong the association is between civilisation (and its collapse) and solar output. And if it is there.. what is the time delay? Does technology stave it off?

>>154718
>Better to have a plan you don't need, than need a plan you don't have.
I agree, but I think we might be planning for the wrong thing here. I see no one talking about a sudden shift towards nationalism, nor anyone taking into account just how much sway the Middle East has over our economies. It's all "China this, China that".

>>154720
There is always a conflict between discussing absolute reality (it's too big to write about succinctly) and conveying a important message simply.

>>154721
There is only one absolute in the universe: everything has a beginning, middle, and end. Everything else is just optional filler.

>>154725
Are you me? :D

>>154730
Through a technicality, yes!

That image is undeniably the cutest thing I've seen all week.

>>154715
>Second, if the West falls, then China no longer has anyone to buy their goods for them. They can't exactly get money if no one buys anything.
This so much, I'm sick of people saying China will rise from all of this the most when China is economically really weak.
>Need to import food and energy
>Have very weak local market and have to export most goods
>Have to import a lot of their raw materials from other states
>Half the population is rural peasants
>Little emperor generation fucked up demographics
China is more economically fucked then the US, and won't take the mantel of US leadership, its likely that if we lose it'll be to a lack of will to keep it and the US will then cause a crisis where other regional powers will attempt to fill the void under current conditions (a lot can change in a little amount of time.) This will under current conditions cause a world war, because thats normally how power shifts between states.

>>154731
We're only doomed if we do nothing.
>A system that never served humanity is collapsing
>Only problem is that the west is having trouble letting go of such a treachery
>don't want to fall with it do you
>Change, couldn't be happier
>though it to early to say that
>don't really know what's happening
>food for thought

>>154807
We have a limited amount of time, so suggest a better system than capitalism.

>>154808
Distributism?

>>154741
>america is fucked
no
https://youtu.be/Nd8uiIpAy8E?list=FLwLWFQeHVwcE7RhdGplcmlw&t=202
you could just watch this it's entertaining and packed with info. Every point I make uses this video

>WWlll will include america
america is moving into a position were it will become the most isolated and globally uninvolved it has ever been in it's history
for example:
virgin germany:
https://youtu.be/Nd8uiIpAy8E?list=FLwLWFQeHVwcE7RhdGplcmlw&t=2886
chad Britain:
https://youtu.be/Nd8uiIpAy8E?list=FLwLWFQeHVwcE7RhdGplcmlw&t=3157
trump and even hillary (who campaigned for globalism) both want to see the fact that because of shale revolution, the US now completely independent from global system. foreign politics have changed (but war never changes).

don't get me wrong there will likely be a world (or just big) war in the future. but there is no reason the US would get involved
>but muh NATO
NATO is already a failing institution and every member knows it. only america's true true favorite friends and our direct neighbors are safe. alliances no, bilateral buddies yes. but even then, between a world war or -1 friend. Would america really get involved to save the socialist caliphate of Britainstan?

america will be the only country to enter into the mid-21st century with any resemblance of stability. America is destined to become even more of a global juggernaut, but will no longer have any reason to use it’s power for anything other than more power.

If not China, then who will be the economic leader if the West falls?

>>154980
India pooper power 2020!

>>154980
Personally I think it'll just be a multi-polar world again, with no one state having a clear dominance over world politics.

>economically
the US will be economic superpower #1, even more than it is now.

>politically
with the US just leaving the global stage to be prosperous in it’s own corner. the world looks more like 1910. the old world is moving back into a world of regional powers

>Europe was a whole
problems:
#1 no babies -> retiree majority -> capital will be tight + no economic growth
who pays? no one
#2 immigration: arabs: only know how to conquer for islam, no science! and pure blood sub-saharan african spearchuckers
if Europe falls to barbarians it’s over

for western Europe the biggest concern is reconquista or die

if Europe somehow survives, I expect there to a great deal of friction between the deeply impoverished states of Europe. But everyone is also in need of resources to fuel their nations
there are really 2 options
>WWlll
Germany pushes their luck again and gets into another war. EU bitterness is the most likely reason
>neo-Imperialism
Europe realizes they need to solve their resource problem somehow and do it the old fashioned way. take it by force. (oil being the most likely resource in need)

on a minor note
there are supposed to be 3 expected conflicts to come (USSR returns, Japan vs China, and Saudi Arabia vs Iran) of these only one seems like one of the players has the balls to do anything

>Saudi Arabia vs Iran
without US presence in the area, this jihad fueled feud could easily turn violent. and unlike westernized countries like: Japan, China, and Russia, they would defiantly ruin their countries in the name of Allah (PBUH)

>>154980
Either no one, or the Middle East.

Western economics, at least in NA, is heading towards aristocracy again. Within 10 years you will not be able to afford property if you don't already have some. If you don't have 50k net worth atm you're pretty fucked. If you're technically in debt atm you're super fucking fucked. You need to squirrel away net worth asap to be on the right side of the wave for your children otherwise they'll be barred off from a shitty life.

>>155145
*barred off from success and trapped in a shitty life

>>155145
why?

>>155145
I'm sharing the same sentiment as >>155207 : What evidence is there to suggest that it's heading towards aristocracy?

>>155145
because of american free speech laws (((they))) are under a lot of scrutiny, and want to restrict free speech. but America is the only nation in the world to have a right to free speech; so that “what about muh hate speech goy!” doesn’t work here. The truth cannot be legally censored in America.

and that's not mentioning the thriving whistleblower movement within the government. Think Q, Edward Snowden, wiki-leaks (2016). the deep state is being brought to light

Finally, America elected a president who isn’t part of (((them))). When he, like any american would, sees this. he’ll give them the good ole “You’re Fired”.
America can see (((them))) and we have a president that can do something about (((them)))

There is every reason to say that (at least for now) America is draining the swamp.

>>154808
Anarcho-tribalism, perhaps Anarcho neotribalism.
Inverted Hierarchy, you know the power to the people, being mindful of the environment.
We need to get rid of money, it's a corruption magnet.
I know everything I've given you is crudely stated as I don't know to all too well myself.

>>155329
I'd rather hospitals, roads and spaceships.
Since tech is a force multiplier you won't have any group giving it up.

>>155329
>tribalism
there's your problem

>>155329
Liquid democracy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBMD5Hw77AM&ab_channel=selfruleuk

with The Alternative Vote system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Y3jE3B8HsE&ab_channel=CGPGrey

>economics better than capitalism
capitalism

>>154808
Better question
When AI automation takes most jobs and brings unemployment to 25 (that same as Great Depression) and that's assuming the economy is booming. Also white collar jobs will be tight as those will also be automated. So very high production very low labor.

What do?

>>155448
Lower retirement age. The young need discipline. The mature need less. Since companies will be uber profitable, tax them lots.

>>154719
>I have stated before that I attended a presentation of the data collected from the ice core samples. It revealed a 300-year major cycle in the energy output of the sun. It matched the Economic Confidence Model I constructed from entirely different source data including the monetary history of human activity. I was stunned, for it demonstrated to me that the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states was also in part instigated by climate change. When it turns cold, this is when civilization contracts. The bottom of this immediate ECM is January 2020. The forecast for Solar Cycle 24 will bottom around that same time period.
>We are running our models on all the data to come up with our own forecast for Solar Cycle 25, which will take us into the end of this 51.6-year Wave in 2032 and the culmination of the 309.6-year cycle in the ECM. As you can see, Solar Cycle 24 is significantly lower than the Solar Cycle 23. You can see why I moved to Florida. Preliminary findings show that each wave is progressively getting weaker and that may be in line with what we expect in commodity prices as well as what is to come after 2032.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/solar-cycle-24-to-bottom-with-the-economic-confidence-model-2020/

Presented by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, July 2015:
>A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645….
>Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity….
>“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.”
https://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2680-irregular-heartbeat-of-the-sun-driven-by-double-dynamo

Before computers and science how could anyone know there might be a ~300 year solar cycle?

Pic1:
>The end of solar activity - and ham radio? Image courtesy Prof. Valentina Zharkova.
https://mw1cfnradio.blogspot.com/2016/08/amateur-radio-perfect-storm-ahead.html

Pic2: http://principia-scientific.org/modern-solar-grand-maximum-ends-little-ice-age-cooling-coming/

Why do you wake up the old gods, anon??

>>156071
The Norse really did have some of the best stories and gods, and are a prime example of what Europa used to be. Just behind my own beloved Roman pantheon, I would gladly pay homage to these legends of old.


I LOVE YOU WINTER-CHAN

>>155358
Since when does tribalism entail not having your beloved tech (Just don't go sticking it into your body, [it is the love of technology that will end our humanity])? It's 2018 and I believe you a white man obviously I'm talking about an ethnic European tribe or commune, (if you prefer that word in its place) not some obscure primitive tribe of the Amazon rain forest or Africa.
>>155419 Doesn't anyone use dictionaries anymore?
What wrong with tribalism?
>>155420
I don't like giving away my power, hence why I wrote Anarcho-tribalism.
Does it help to say that I'm an Anarchist. Thanks all the same.